A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
